In a keynote address on Scenarios For Asia In The Next 20 Years at the 20th Nikkei International Conference in Tokyo, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the next two decades presented a historic opportunity for Asia, if the dominant regional powers — the United States, China and Japan — could work together peacefully. But there were uncertainties and challenges that could lead to tensions and disputes.
I was disappointed that Mr Lee took the current situation and extrapolated it two decades forward. Looking back 20 years ago, how many people would have forecast the state of the region now? Extrapolating is something that many analysts do, we don't need anyone to do for us something that we are capable of doing ourselves. And even when extrapolating and presenting different scenarios, good analysts should assign probabilities for each of the scenarios.
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